Date of Award
Master of Science (MS)
John R. Mecikalski
Larry D. Carey
Eugene W. McCaul, Jr.
GOES (Meteorological satellite), Lightning., Convection (Meteorology)
As lightning poses dangers to both humans and industry, the ability to nowcast lightning initiation (LI) and extent is a formidable endeavor. The GOES-R Convective Initiation (CI) Algorithm provides 0-1 hr. nowcasts of both CI and LI, but gives no indication of lightning density. Through the use of geostationary satellite data, IR interest fields were analyzed leading up to convective storms that produced varying amounts of lightning, as observed by a Lightning Mapping Array. The goal was to determine if these interest fields could provide information on how much lightning future convection may produce. Lightning threat forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were included to determine if these data provide any nowcast value. While data from higher flash density storms were limited, results indicated that trends unique to higher flash rate cases may exist. Furthermore, WRF output may provide a possible range of future flash density.
Saari, Matthew Dale William, "Nowcasting of peak lightning density using geostationary satellite data and model simulations" (2014). Theses. 58.