Date of Award
2022
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Atmospheric and Earth Science
Committee Chair
John R. Mecikalski
Committee Member
Udaysankar Nair
Committee Member
Kevin Knupp
Subject(s)
Thunderstorm forecasting--Ala.bama, Convection (Meteorology)
Abstract
In the Southeast U.S., summer days with abundant “pop-up” thunderstorms are common and strong synoptic forcing is not needed to initiate them. The goal of this study is to explain and ultimately enhance predictability of summertime convective initiation in these tranquil environments. Spatial non-randomness arises, with greater event density appearing over high elevation by midday. Late in the day, event counts subside with another mechanism emerging (urban heat island). Antecedent rainfall, instability, and moisture are higher on average where convective initiation occurred. In terms of feature importance, elevation is more important in the early to mid-afternoon while antecedent rainfall and wind direction consistently are the most important overall. Future work includes implementation of additional features, average soundings over areas of differing event density, and further machine learning analysis.
Recommended Citation
Tracy, Christopher, "The significance of land use, topography, antecedent rainfall, and atmospheric conditions in relation to summertime convective storm initiation in the North Alabama region" (2022). Theses. 382.
https://louis.uah.edu/uah-theses/382